Stats That Favor ‘Underdog’ vs. Conor McGregor

Poirier lost to McGregor by first-round stoppage back in 2014 in a featherweight bout, but the American has become a considerably better fighter since that date

Have no fear, underdog is here!
💎

— The Diamond (@DustinPoirier) January 5, 2021

The fighter also retweeted the UFC’s recent post about him trying to add another “former champ” to his growing and impressive list of victories.

Looking to add another former champ to the list 💎

[ #UFC257 | #InAbuDhabi | @VisitAbuDhabi ] pic.twitter.com/Cn1Rf1smND

— UFC (@ufc) January 5, 2021

Can Poirier Pull off Upset?

Poirier has some important things going for him heading into the rematch later this month.

First, Poirier is ranked higher than McGregor in the UFC’s official lightweight rankings. Poirier is ranked No. 2 and McGregor is slotted at No. 4.

According to UFC Stats, many of Poirier’s overall numbers in key statistical categories also compare quite favorably to McGregor.

Both southpaws are the same height (5’9″), but Poirier lands more strikes per minute than McGregor, 5.57 to 5.43.

Moreover, Poirier absorbs fewer strikes per minute from his opponents in return, 4.18 to 4.40.

Poirer also has a little better defense on his feet than the Irish superstar, 55% to 54%.

On the ground, Poirier beats McGregor in both the number of takedowns he averages per 15 minutes, 1.46 to 0.75, as well as the number of submissions he attempts over that same timeframe, 1.3 to 0.

If you’re looking for even more reasons to believe the American is on his way to pulling the huge upset over McGregor, consider that Poirier would seemingly have more ways to win the fight than the ex-champ champ does.

While both fighters rely heavily on their impressive striking skills, Poirier has won 12 fights by knockout, 7 by submission, and 7 by decision. That’s a sold split among methods and something that indicates he’s a complete MMA fighter.

Meanwhile, McGregor has only scored one win by submission and that came well before his time in the UFC.

Finally, when taking a deep dive into this fight for Bleacher Reports’ Head-To-Toe Breakdown, it struck me that when splitting the categories into three major things: striking, grappling, and submissions, Poirier has the edge in two of the three total categories.

McGregor’s Power Could Be Main Difference

Of course, not all the stats favor Poirier.

McGregor is a little more accurate at striking 50% to 49%, and the Irishman enjoys a better takedown defense, 70% to 60%, and higher takedown accuracy, 62% to 35%.

The biggest difference in his favor, at least statistically speaking, is probably McGregor’s knockout power.

Of McGregor’s 22 total wins, 19 of them, or 86%, were knockouts or stoppages.

Poirier’s stoppages account for around 46% of his 26 wins.

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2

Still, Poirier’s world-class credentials make him a live underdog against McGregor the second time around.

Since the two fought over six years ago, both have reached impressive heights in the sport.

McGregor’s exploits as MMA’s most popular star and first-ever UFC “champ champ” are already well-documented and quite celebrated.

But Poirier’s excellent run a becoming one of the most complete 155-pound fighters in the world today shouldn’t be dismissed.

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 is a compelling fight between two of the world’s best lightweights, and “The Diamond” has what it takes to shock the world.